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Jerome Powell owes us an explanation. The Federal Reserve chairman this week confirmed what investors already had guessed: Surprisingly persistent inflation is dissuading the Fed from cutting its short-term policy rate as soon and perhaps as quickly as Wall Street had hoped.It’s the right call. The Fed committed its worst error in 40 years when it acted far too slowly to tame inflation following the pandemic. Its institutional credibility—on which hangs a lot in a fiat-money system—now depends on Mr. Powell’s success in suppressing that inflation.As recently as December, with consumer-price inflation about 4% and the Fed’s preferred personal-consumption-expenditure inflation rate at around 3% (both excluding food and energy), central-bank officials signaled they were on track for at least three rate cuts this year.The Fed believed it had set inflation on a permanent glide path toward its 2% target.The central bank believes it can talk markets into doing what it wants by telegraphing what the Fed plans to do. The primary model, known as FRBUS is flawed. deeply flawed. It doesn’t adequately account for the effects of fiscal policy, such as the $10 trillion in cumulative deficit spending since the start of 2020, constituting subsidies and other expenditures Congress and successive administrations pumped into the economy. The model didn’t predict the inflationary consumption explosion of that era, and probably has way overstated the (largely illusory) benefits of government infrastructure spending for future productivity and economic growth. The model chronically misunderstands the labor market, and overestimates the effect of a tight labor market on inflation.
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Oil and gas are doing more for the economy than his climate dreams.Despite President Biden’s best efforts, U.S. fossil-fuel production continues to grow, and it’s supporting the economy he touts. That’s one notable finding from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s recent report on state GDP growth in 2023 that is always instructive about regional and industrial economic trends.The U.S. economy last year expanded by 2.5%, and while the rest of the press missed it, fossil-fuel producing states led the way. These include North Dakota (5.9%), Texas (5.7%), Wyoming (5.4%), Oklahoma (5.3%), Alaska (5.3%), West Virginia (4.7%) and New Mexico (4.1%). Mining contributed about two to three percentage points to GDP growth in these states.U.S. oil production last year hit a record 13.3 million barrels a day while natural gas output surged to a record 45.6 trillion cubic feet. Most has occurred on state and private lands, which the federal government has little power to stop. This is why government revenue in Texas from oil and gas royalties and taxes last year soared to $26.3 billion.Mr. Biden will never admit it, but privately financed fossil-fuel production is doing far more to boost the U.S. economy than his hundreds of billions of dollars in spending on electric vehicles and green energy. The latter may even detract from economic growth by causing a misallocation of capital to less productive uses.
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Mortgage rates have surged past 7% and home sales in March posted their biggest monthly drop in more than a year, renewing pressure on the U.S. housing market as uncertainty over real-estate commissions buffets the industry.The average rate on the standard 30-year fixed mortgage jumped by nearly a quarter percentage point to 7.1%, according to a survey of lenders released Thursday by mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac. That is the highest level since late 2023 and the largest weekly increase in nearly a year.Existing home sales in March, meanwhile, fell 4.3% from February in what was the largest percentage decline on a monthly basis since November 2022, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.The housing market’s recent turbulence is cutting short a positive start to the year. Sales tumbled to their lowest level in nearly 30 years in 2023. But they rose during the first two months of this year as a number of buyers took advantage of a decline in mortgage rates to resume their home search. Active listings ticked higher and real-estate showings picked up in January. Mortgage rates started to rise again in February, weighing on March sales. The recent spike in borrowing costs could drag affordability back to the historic lows it reached last year. Home prices are near record highs. Other costs to own a home, such as insurance premiums, property taxes and maintenance, have skyrocketed, too. Home buyers are also confused about coming changes to the rules governing how real-estate agents get paid, and whether those changes could increase or decrease their overall costs. NAR reached a historic settlement of claims last month that the industry conspired to keep agent commissions high. The new rules are expected to make it easier for home buyers to negotiate fees with their own agents.
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WhatsApp, Signal and Telegram among apps cut from iPhone app store to comply with censorship demandChina ordered China ordered Apple to remove some of the world’s most popular chat messaging apps from its app store in the country, the latest example of censorship demands on the iPhone seller in the company’s second-biggest market.WhatsApp and Threads as well as messaging platforms Signal and Telegram were taken off the Chinese App Store Friday. Apple said it was told to remove certain apps because of national security concerns, without specifying which.These messaging apps, which allow users to exchange messages and share files individually and in large groups, combined have around three billion users globally. They can only be accessed in China through virtual private networks that take users outside China’s Great Firewall, but are still commonly used.Beijing has often viewed such platforms with caution, concerned that these apps could be used by its citizens to spread negative content and cause social unrest. Much of the news China censors at home often makes it beyond the Great Firewall through such channels. The Cyberspace Administration of China asked Apple to remove WhatsApp and Threads from the App Store because both contain political content that includes problematic mentions of the Chinese president, according to a person familiar with the matter. The Apple spokesperson said that wasn’t part of the reasoning.The move shrinks the number of foreign chat apps Chinese internet users can use to communicate with those outside of the country, a further tightening of internet controls by Beijing, which is sensitive to uncensored information circulating.Tech tensions between the U.S. and China are already running high. Congress is fast-tracking a bipartisan effort to crack down on TikTok that could lead to passage of a law this month forcing its Chinese parent to sell the popular video-sharing app in the U.S. or face a ban.Collectively, Instagram, X, Facebook, YouTube and WhatsApp have been downloaded from Apple’s app store more than 170 million times in China over the past decade, according to estimates by market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. Apps such as X were key to disseminating information and videos of protests against Covid rules in China that erupted in late 2022.
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India has commenced its colossal general election, a six-week democratic exercise that stands as the largest in the world. With nearly 970 million eligible voters, the nation is at a pivotal moment in its political history. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the face of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and a figure synonymous with Hindu nationalism, is vying for an unprecedented third term in office. The election is not just a test of Modi's enduring appeal but also a referendum on the BJP's governance, particularly its handling of economic growth, job creation, and the promotion of Hindu pride.As the polls opened, the anticipation and excitement among the electorate were palpable. Modi, leveraging a mix of developmental promises and nationalist rhetoric, has managed to galvanize a significant portion of the Indian populace. His campaign has skillfully navigated the complex tapestry of Indian politics, appealing to both the aspirations and the cultural sentiments of the voters. The opposition, fragmented and beleaguered, faces an uphill battle in mounting a credible challenge to Modi's juggernaut.The election's significance extends beyond the immediate political fortunes of the contenders. It is a litmus test for Indian democracy, showcasing the nation's ability to conduct free and fair elections on an unprecedented scale. Moreover, the outcome will have profound implications for India's social fabric, its economic trajectory, and its position on the global stage. A victory for Modi would likely mean a continuation of policies aimed at bolstering Hindu identity and assertive foreign policy stances.Critics, however, express concern over the divisive nature of the campaign and the potential erosion of secular principles enshrined in the Indian constitution. The election unfolds against a backdrop of heightened nationalism, with Modi and the BJP accused of marginalizing minority communities and stifling dissent. The world watches closely as India decides its future, balancing between its aspirations for economic prosperity and the preservation of its pluralistic ethos.As the voting process unfolds over the coming weeks, the eyes of the world remain fixed on India. The nation's choice will not only shape its own destiny but also send a message about the resilience of democracy in the face of rising authoritarian tendencies globally. Modi's quest for a third term is more than a political campaign; it is a moment of reckoning for the world's largest democracy.
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Here is a list of influential tweets promoting informed voting.
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— Kim Kardashian (@KimKardashian) September 7, 2012
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